Despite its politicians, despite undeveloped capital markets that still struggle to attract investors, despite the cancerous corruption that appears to be eating the country’s soul, Bangladesh has changed dramatically in the last 10 years. The forces of regeneration are outpacing the forces of degeneration. The silent revolution forged by GrameenPhone is transforming the country in spite of the government.

The GDP growth rate, which had been plugging along at 5%, was projected to hit 6.5-7% in 2006, shrugging off high oil prices that are putting a strain on costs and foreign reserves. The rate of growth would be even faster were it not for the corruption and hartals that generate uncertainty. World Bank vice president Praful Patel noted in the spring of 2006 that growth rate of Bangladesh could be 2.0-2.8 percentage points higher if corruption were reduced to the level of least corrupt countries, according to the World Bank’s study on “Sources of Growth and Productivity in Bangladesh.” The economy also loses about 3-4 percent of GDP annually on average because of hartals, he said, referring to another study by United Nations Development Programme.

Social changes are equally impressive. The birth rate and the death rate are down; the number of children completing school, particularly girls, is up. In a country of rivers, where ferries were not long ago the primary mode of transport, you can now reach anywhere in the country from Dhaka within 10 hours, traveling mostly on roads. Thanks to mechanized irrigation, rice production has tripled in 30 years, despite significantly less land under cultivation, and vegetables are exported. Thanks primarily to advertising by cellphone operators, Dhaka has 10 private television stations. Rickshaw drivers carry cellphones, just as car drivers do, which not only enhances their productivity but saves their customers time. Numerous Internet wireless networks popped up on my laptop screen, although many are line-of-sight that don’t work particularly well in the city. Today uninterrupted wireless broadband is spreading from Dhaka out into the countryside. It’s easy to understand how Yunus could have been so optimistic in his speech on the 15th anniversary of The Daily Star:

“We are ready to launch ourselves into a path to cross USD 1,000 per capita income, 8 percent GDP growth rate, and reducing poverty level to under 25 percent in the near future.”

A recent World Bank study on the economies of South Asia echoes this point, predicting that a 7% growth rate between now and 2013 will reduce poverty in Bangladesh to 20%.